Proposed VIP Changes - Summary for Policy Makers - Draft 2024-09-25b

Table of Contents

1 Introduction

This Summary For Policymakers tests the impact to air quality of modifying the Oregon VIP program from the statutory requirement of testing all new vehicles < 14k lbs when they are 2 or more years old, to the defacto norm of testing these when they are 4 or more years old.

These results were made using MOVES 4.0.1 with county databases supplied by the EPA as starting points for the year 2023. They apply to the model year 2023.

Two modeling runs were done for the four Oregon counties with vehicle inspection programs. The scenarios modeled were:

  • Baseline : two year exemption.
  • Scenario A: increase the new vehicle exemption from the current “until 2 years old” out to be “until 4 years old“.

2 Results

2.1 Scenario Outcome Summaries

The scenario outcomes are summarized in Tables 1, 2, 3, and 4 for percentages. Tables 5, 6, 7, and 8 for lbs/year.

Table 1: Clackamas County - percent change due to scenario in the target year 2023.
Pollutant % Change - 4 New Model Year
1,3-Butadiene 0
Acetaldehyde 0
Acrolein 0
Benzene 0
Carbon Monoxide (CO) 0.153
Composite - NonECPM 0
Elemental Carbon 0
Ethanol 0.0789
Formaldehyde 0
H2O (aerosol) nil
Naphthalene gas 0
Naphthalene particle nil
Non-Methane Hydrocarbons 0.0962
Organic Carbon 0
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 0.038
Primary Exhaust PM10 - Total 0
Primary Exhaust PM2.5 - Total 0
Primary PM10 - Brakewear Particulate 0
Primary PM10 - Tirewear Particulate 0
Primary PM2.5 - Brakewear Particulate 0
Primary PM2.5 - Tirewear Particulate 0
Sulfate Particulate 0
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 0
Total Energy Consumption 0
Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons 0.0978
Volatile Organic Compounds 0.0935
Table 2: Multnomah County - percent change due to scenario in the target year 2023.
Pollutant % Change - 4 New Model Year
1,3-Butadiene 0
Acetaldehyde 0
Acrolein 0
Benzene 0
Carbon Monoxide (CO) 0.1451
Composite - NonECPM 0
Elemental Carbon 0
Ethanol 0.0602
Formaldehyde 0.1416
H2O (aerosol) nil
Naphthalene gas 0
Naphthalene particle nil
Non-Methane Hydrocarbons 0.0932
Organic Carbon 0
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 0.032
Primary Exhaust PM10 - Total 0
Primary Exhaust PM2.5 - Total 0
Primary PM10 - Brakewear Particulate 0
Primary PM10 - Tirewear Particulate 0
Primary PM2.5 - Brakewear Particulate 0
Primary PM2.5 - Tirewear Particulate 0
Sulfate Particulate 0
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 0
Total Energy Consumption 0
Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons 0.0926
Volatile Organic Compounds 0.0899
Table 3: Washington County - percent change due to scenario in the target year 2023.
Pollutant % Change - 4 New Model Year
1,3-Butadiene 0
Acetaldehyde 0.5202
Acrolein 0
Benzene 0.1985
Carbon Monoxide (CO) 0.1507
Composite - NonECPM 0
Elemental Carbon 0
Ethanol 0.0595
Formaldehyde 0
H2O (aerosol) nil
Naphthalene gas 0
Naphthalene particle nil
Non-Methane Hydrocarbons 0.0995
Organic Carbon 0
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 0.0392
Primary Exhaust PM10 - Total 0
Primary Exhaust PM2.5 - Total 0
Primary PM10 - Brakewear Particulate 0
Primary PM10 - Tirewear Particulate 0
Primary PM2.5 - Brakewear Particulate 0
Primary PM2.5 - Tirewear Particulate 0
Sulfate Particulate 0
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 0
Total Energy Consumption 0
Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons 0.0997
Volatile Organic Compounds 0.0947
Table 4: Jackson County - percent change due to scenario in the target year 2023.
Pollutant % Change - 4 New Model Year
1,3-Butadiene 0
Acetaldehyde 0
Acrolein 0
Benzene 0
Carbon Monoxide (CO) 0.143
Composite - NonECPM 0
Elemental Carbon 0
Ethanol 0.116
Formaldehyde 0
H2O (aerosol) nil
Naphthalene gas 0
Naphthalene particle nil
Non-Methane Hydrocarbons 0.0818
Organic Carbon 0
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 0.0333
Primary Exhaust PM10 - Total 0
Primary Exhaust PM2.5 - Total 0
Primary PM10 - Brakewear Particulate 0
Primary PM10 - Tirewear Particulate 0
Primary PM2.5 - Brakewear Particulate 0
Primary PM2.5 - Tirewear Particulate 0
Sulfate Particulate 0
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 0
Total Energy Consumption 0
Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons 0.0811
Volatile Organic Compounds 0.0936
Table 5: Clackmas County change in emissions due to the scenario (lbs/yr).
Pollutant 4 New Model Year
1,3-Butadiene 0
Acetaldehyde 0
Acrolein 0
Benzene 0
Carbon Monoxide (CO) 39242.5
Composite - NonECPM 0
Elemental Carbon 0
Ethanol 182.5
Formaldehyde 0
H2O (aerosol) 0
Naphthalene gas 0
Naphthalene particle 0
Non-Methane Hydrocarbons 2268.5
Organic Carbon 0
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 1225.5
Primary Exhaust PM10 - Total 0
Primary Exhaust PM2.5 - Total 0
Primary PM10 - Brakewear Particulate 0
Primary PM10 - Tirewear Particulate 0
Primary PM2.5 - Brakewear Particulate 0
Primary PM2.5 - Tirewear Particulate 0
Sulfate Particulate 0
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 0
Total Energy Consumption 0
Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons 2581.5
Volatile Organic Compounds 2320.5
Table 6: Multnomah County change in emissions due to the scenario (lbs/yr).
Pollutant 4 New Model Year
1,3-Butadiene 0
Acetaldehyde 0
Acrolein 0
Benzene 0
Carbon Monoxide (CO) 72801
Composite - NonECPM 0
Elemental Carbon 0
Ethanol 234.5
Formaldehyde 52
H2O (aerosol) 0
Naphthalene gas 0
Naphthalene particle 0
Non-Methane Hydrocarbons 3807
Organic Carbon 0
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 2268.5
Primary Exhaust PM10 - Total 0
Primary Exhaust PM2.5 - Total 0
Primary PM10 - Brakewear Particulate 0
Primary PM10 - Tirewear Particulate 0
Primary PM2.5 - Brakewear Particulate 0
Primary PM2.5 - Tirewear Particulate 0
Sulfate Particulate 0
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 0
Total Energy Consumption 0
Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons 4302.5
Volatile Organic Compounds 3859
Table 7: Washington County change in emissions due to the scenario (lbs/yr).
Pollutant 4 New Model Year
1,3-Butadiene 0
Acetaldehyde 130.5
Acrolein 0
Benzene 130.5
Carbon Monoxide (CO) 54105.5
Composite - NonECPM 0
Elemental Carbon 0
Ethanol 182.5
Formaldehyde 0
H2O (aerosol) 0
Naphthalene gas 0
Naphthalene particle 0
Non-Methane Hydrocarbons 3129
Organic Carbon 0
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 1642.5
Primary Exhaust PM10 - Total 0
Primary Exhaust PM2.5 - Total 0
Primary PM10 - Brakewear Particulate 0
Primary PM10 - Tirewear Particulate 0
Primary PM2.5 - Brakewear Particulate 0
Primary PM2.5 - Tirewear Particulate 0
Sulfate Particulate 0
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 0
Total Energy Consumption 0
Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons 3494
Volatile Organic Compounds 3129
Table 8: Jackson County change in emissions due to the scenario (lbs/yr).
Pollutant 4 New Model Year
1,3-Butadiene 0
Acetaldehyde 0
Acrolein 0
Benzene 0
Carbon Monoxide (CO) 22737
Composite - NonECPM 0
Elemental Carbon 0
Ethanol 182.5
Formaldehyde 0
H2O (aerosol) 0
Naphthalene gas 0
Naphthalene particle 0
Non-Methane Hydrocarbons 1277.5
Organic Carbon 0
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 808.5
Primary Exhaust PM10 - Total 0
Primary Exhaust PM2.5 - Total 0
Primary PM10 - Brakewear Particulate 0
Primary PM10 - Tirewear Particulate 0
Primary PM2.5 - Brakewear Particulate 0
Primary PM2.5 - Tirewear Particulate 0
Sulfate Particulate 0
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 0
Total Energy Consumption 0
Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons 1408
Volatile Organic Compounds 1538.5

3 Discussion

These tables show percentage change (increase) as a result of the possible program changes.

VMT for 2020 was given to DEQ by ODOT. This should/would be less VMT than pre-pandemic: 90 % of normal (?). In a normal year, these increases in emissions would be greater than we have reported here.

Regardless, the percentage change would be the same ([EF1]x[ACT]/[EF2]x[ACT]).

The modeling run and the choices made are in my document “Modeling the VIP Program - 2 to 4 Year Exemption”, available on request.

4 Appendices

4.1 MOVES Run Specifications

On-road mobile source emissions were modeled using the EPA’s MOVES 4.0.1 model. The runs included all vehicle and road types. The output was total emissions in grams for most of the MSAT and CAP. The model was run in emission inventory mode to output emissions for each county. The MOVES modeling Run Spec(s) are detailed in Tables 9 and 10.

Table 9: MOVES runspec (MRS) for 2 year
Panel Item Settings
Description VIP ``baseline’’ JP 2024-09-18
Scale  
   Scale County
   Calculation Type Emission Inventory
Time Spans:  
   Aggregation: Day
   Year 2023
   Months January, July
   Days Weekdays, weekend
   Hours 24
Geographic Bounds Multnomah County (41051), Clackamas County (41005),
  Washington County (41067), Jackson County (41029)
Vehicles/Equipment All Vehicles/All Fuel Types
Road Type All
Pollutants and Processes  
   Pollutants All MSAT and CP (except lead)
   Processes All
Manage Input Datasets Starting point CDBs for 2023 1
  (2020 VMT used - starting point CDBs are
  “Missing: dayVMTFraction is missing roadTypeID(s) 1”
Strategies None
Output  
   General Output Mass units = grams, Distance units = miles
   Emissions Detail Mass by pollutant and emission process (running, start, evap, etc)

4.2 Raw Data - MOVES 4 Emissions Estimates

Above I presented some select tables which identify particular features of the modeling results. Here I expand on that by presenting more of the detailed numbers.

For each pollutant, by county:

  • The amount per year emitted in each of the four scenarios.

The scenarios are assigned short names for this presentation.

  • base: 2 year exemption
  • scen_a: 4 New Model Year Exempt Scenario
Table 11: Clackamas County emissions for all scenarios, all species, in lbs/year.
Pollutant base scen_a
1,3-Butadiene 6388.5 6388.5
Acetaldehyde 19192 19192
Acrolein 1538.5 1538.5
Benzene 48917 48917
Carbon Monoxide (CO) 25651593 25690835.5
Composite - NonECPM 38226 38226
Elemental Carbon 41850.5 41850.5
Ethanol 231189.5 231372
Formaldehyde 18931 18931
Naphthalene gas 2764 2764
Non-Methane Hydrocarbons 2359027 2361295.5
Organic Carbon 21538 21538
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 3226071.5 3227297
Primary Exhaust PM10 - Total 88864 88864
Primary Exhaust PM2.5 - Total 80207 80207
Primary PM10 - Brakewear Particulate 158264.5 158264.5
Primary PM10 - Tirewear Particulate 56870.5 56870.5
Primary PM2.5 - Brakewear Particulate 19871 19871
Primary PM2.5 - Tirewear Particulate 8605 8605
Sulfate Particulate 3494 3494
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 13376.5 13376.5
Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons 2640047.5 2642629
Volatile Organic Compounds 2480527 2482847.5
Table 12: Multnomah County emissions for all scenarios, all species, in lbs/year.
Pollutant base scen_a
1,3-Butadiene 10821.5 10821.5
Acetaldehyde 34629 34629
Acrolein 2894.5 2894.5
Benzene 84171 84171
Carbon Monoxide (CO) 50165879 50238680
Composite - NonECPM 78303.5 78303.5
Elemental Carbon 86334.5 86334.5
Ethanol 389222 389456.5
Formaldehyde 36715 36767
Naphthalene gas 5032.5 5032.5
Non-Methane Hydrocarbons 4085457.5 4089264.5
Organic Carbon 41981 41981
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 7096038 7098306.5
Primary Exhaust PM10 - Total 181873.5 181873.5
Primary Exhaust PM2.5 - Total 164638 164638
Primary PM10 - Brakewear Particulate 343467.5 343467.5
Primary PM10 - Tirewear Particulate 125214 125214
Primary PM2.5 - Brakewear Particulate 42976 42976
Primary PM2.5 - Tirewear Particulate 18852.5 18852.5
Sulfate Particulate 8344 8344
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 28839 28839
Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons 4644292 4648594.5
Volatile Organic Compounds 4293939.5 4297798.5
Table 13: Washington County emissions for all scenarios, all species, in lbs/year.
Pollutant base scen_a
1,3-Butadiene 8553 8553
Acetaldehyde 25085 25215.5
Acrolein 1903.5 1903.5
Benzene 65735.5 65866
Carbon Monoxide (CO) 35909849 35963954.5
Composite - NonECPM 50377 50377
Elemental Carbon 53271.5 53271.5
Ethanol 306516 306698.5
Formaldehyde 24641.5 24641.5
Naphthalene gas 3624.5 3624.5
Non-Methane Hydrocarbons 3143946.5 3147075.5
Organic Carbon 28917.5 28917.5
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 4186072 4187714.5
Primary Exhaust PM10 - Total 114887 114887
Primary Exhaust PM2.5 - Total 103596.5 103596.5
Primary PM10 - Brakewear Particulate 223197.5 223197.5
Primary PM10 - Tirewear Particulate 80886 80886
Primary PM2.5 - Brakewear Particulate 27903 27903
Primary PM2.5 - Tirewear Particulate 12099 12099
Sulfate Particulate 4406.5 4406.5
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 18904.5 18904.5
Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons 3505045.5 3508539.5
Volatile Organic Compounds 3304218 3307347
Table 14: Jackson County emissions for all scenarios, all species, in lbs/year.
Pollutant base scen_a
1,3-Butadiene 3572.5 3572.5
Acetaldehyde 11812.5 11812.5
Acrolein 991 991
Benzene 28604.5 28604.5
Carbon Monoxide (CO) 15900214 15922951
Composite - NonECPM 25527.5 25527.5
Elemental Carbon 29699.5 29699.5
Ethanol 157272 157454.5
Formaldehyde 12047 12047
Naphthalene gas 1590.5 1590.5
Non-Methane Hydrocarbons 1562662 1563939.5
Organic Carbon 13376.5 13376.5
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 2430934.5 2431743
Primary Exhaust PM10 - Total 60989.5 60989.5
Primary Exhaust PM2.5 - Total 55227 55227
Primary PM10 - Brakewear Particulate 98521 98521
Primary PM10 - Tirewear Particulate 35619 35619
Primary PM2.5 - Brakewear Particulate 12282.5 12282.5
Primary PM2.5 - Tirewear Particulate 5345.5 5345.5
Sulfate Particulate 2816 2816
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 8396 8396
Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons 1735597 1737005
Volatile Organic Compounds 1644139.5 1645678

4.2.1 In tons/year.

Table 15: Clackamas County emissions for all scenarios, all species, in tons/year.
Pollutant base scen_a
1,3-Butadiene 3.19425 3.19425
Acetaldehyde 9.596 9.596
Acrolein 0.76925 0.76925
Benzene 24.4585 24.4585
Carbon Monoxide (CO) 12825.7965 12845.41775
Composite - NonECPM 19.113 19.113
Elemental Carbon 20.92525 20.92525
Ethanol 115.59475 115.686
Formaldehyde 9.4655 9.4655
Naphthalene gas 1.382 1.382
Non-Methane Hydrocarbons 1179.5135 1180.64775
Organic Carbon 10.769 10.769
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 1613.03575 1613.6485
Primary Exhaust PM10 - Total 44.432 44.432
Primary Exhaust PM2.5 - Total 40.1035 40.1035
Primary PM10 - Brakewear Particulate 79.13225 79.13225
Primary PM10 - Tirewear Particulate 28.43525 28.43525
Primary PM2.5 - Brakewear Particulate 9.9355 9.9355
Primary PM2.5 - Tirewear Particulate 4.3025 4.3025
Sulfate Particulate 1.747 1.747
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 6.68825 6.68825
Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons 1320.02375 1321.3145
Volatile Organic Compounds 1240.2635 1241.42375
Table 16: Multnomah County emissions for all scenarios, all species, in tons/year.
Pollutant base scen_a
1,3-Butadiene 5.41075 5.41075
Acetaldehyde 17.3145 17.3145
Acrolein 1.44725 1.44725
Benzene 42.0855 42.0855
Carbon Monoxide (CO) 25082.9395 25119.34
Composite - NonECPM 39.15175 39.15175
Elemental Carbon 43.16725 43.16725
Ethanol 194.611 194.72825
Formaldehyde 18.3575 18.3835
Naphthalene gas 2.51625 2.51625
Non-Methane Hydrocarbons 2042.72875 2044.63225
Organic Carbon 20.9905 20.9905
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 3548.019 3549.15325
Primary Exhaust PM10 - Total 90.93675 90.93675
Primary Exhaust PM2.5 - Total 82.319 82.319
Primary PM10 - Brakewear Particulate 171.73375 171.73375
Primary PM10 - Tirewear Particulate 62.607 62.607
Primary PM2.5 - Brakewear Particulate 21.488 21.488
Primary PM2.5 - Tirewear Particulate 9.42625 9.42625
Sulfate Particulate 4.172 4.172
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 14.4195 14.4195
Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons 2322.146 2324.29725
Volatile Organic Compounds 2146.96975 2148.89925
Table 17: Washington County emissions for all scenarios, all species, in tons/year.
Pollutant base scen_a
1,3-Butadiene 4.2765 4.2765
Acetaldehyde 12.5425 12.60775
Acrolein 0.95175 0.95175
Benzene 32.86775 32.933
Carbon Monoxide (CO) 17954.9245 17981.97725
Composite - NonECPM 25.1885 25.1885
Elemental Carbon 26.63575 26.63575
Ethanol 153.258 153.34925
Formaldehyde 12.32075 12.32075
Naphthalene gas 1.81225 1.81225
Non-Methane Hydrocarbons 1571.97325 1573.53775
Organic Carbon 14.45875 14.45875
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 2093.036 2093.85725
Primary Exhaust PM10 - Total 57.4435 57.4435
Primary Exhaust PM2.5 - Total 51.79825 51.79825
Primary PM10 - Brakewear Particulate 111.59875 111.59875
Primary PM10 - Tirewear Particulate 40.443 40.443
Primary PM2.5 - Brakewear Particulate 13.9515 13.9515
Primary PM2.5 - Tirewear Particulate 6.0495 6.0495
Sulfate Particulate 2.20325 2.20325
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 9.45225 9.45225
Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons 1752.52275 1754.26975
Volatile Organic Compounds 1652.109 1653.6735
Table 18: Jackson County emissions for all scenarios, all species, in tons/year.
Pollutant base scen_a
1,3-Butadiene 1.78625 1.78625
Acetaldehyde 5.90625 5.90625
Acrolein 0.4955 0.4955
Benzene 14.30225 14.30225
Carbon Monoxide (CO) 7950.107 7961.4755
Composite - NonECPM 12.76375 12.76375
Elemental Carbon 14.84975 14.84975
Ethanol 78.636 78.72725
Formaldehyde 6.0235 6.0235
Naphthalene gas 0.79525 0.79525
Non-Methane Hydrocarbons 781.331 781.96975
Organic Carbon 6.68825 6.68825
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 1215.46725 1215.8715
Primary Exhaust PM10 - Total 30.49475 30.49475
Primary Exhaust PM2.5 - Total 27.6135 27.6135
Primary PM10 - Brakewear Particulate 49.2605 49.2605
Primary PM10 - Tirewear Particulate 17.8095 17.8095
Primary PM2.5 - Brakewear Particulate 6.14125 6.14125
Primary PM2.5 - Tirewear Particulate 2.67275 2.67275
Sulfate Particulate 1.408 1.408
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 4.198 4.198
Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons 867.7985 868.5025
Volatile Organic Compounds 822.06975 822.839

\clearpage

1

https://gaftp.epa.gov/Air/nei/2023/doc/supporting_data/onroad/initial_CDBs/2023startingPointCDBs_state41.zip

Table 10: MRS for 4 year
Panel Item Settings
Description VIP ``4 year exemptions’’ JP 2024-09-18
Scale  
   Scale County
   Calculation Type Emission Inventory
Time Spans:  
   Aggregation: Day
   Year 2023
   Months January, July
   Days Weekdays, weekend
   Hours 24
Geographic Bounds Multnomah County (41051), Clackamas County (41005),
  Washington County (41067), Jackson County (41029)
Vehicles/Equipment All Vehicles/All Fuel Types
Road Type All
Pollutants and Processes  
   Pollutants All MSAT and CP (except lead)
   Processes All
Manage Input Datasets Starting point CDBs for 2023 1
  IM modified to have 4 year exemption where 2 year is current.
Strategies None
Output  
   General Output Mass units = grams, Distance units = miles
   Emissions Detail Mass by pollutant and emission process (running, start, evap, etc)

Date: \today

Author: J.E. Powell

Created: 2024-09-25 Wed 17:42

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